🚚 Navigating the “Great Freight Recession”A Look at U.S. Trucking in July & The Road Ahead for August 2025
The U.S. trucking industry continues to weather a prolonged downturn, widely referred to as the Great Freight Recession. With overcapacity and soft demand dragging on for nearly three years—double the usual cycle— hopes for recovery have shifted from 2025 to 2026.
📉 July 2025: Headwinds & Hidden Dynamics
đź”» Dampened Demand & Tariff Impact
⚠️ Financial Strain & Bankruptcies
Carroll Fulmer Logistics (70 years in business, Florida) shut down → ~600 jobs lost.
Elma Transport, MG Logistics, NV Freight also filed for bankruptcy in Q2/July.
Smaller carriers remain disproportionately impacted.
đź‘· Surprising Job Growth
Trucking jobs actually rose by 3,600 in July → 1,523,300 total.
Likely due to larger carriers absorbing drivers from failed smaller companies.
đź’˛ Rates: An Illusion of Recovery?
Spot rates: Dry Van +0.5% YoY | Flatbed +1.6% YoY.
Gains tied more to pre-tariff shipping & weak 2024 comps than real growth.
Overcapacity + soft demand = underlying weakness.
🏛️ Regulatory Shifts
FMCSA & NHTSA withdrew speed limiter mandates → welcomed relief.
Medical certification waivers granted during system transition.
🤖 Technology’s Double-Edged Sword
AI-driven route optimization, predictive maintenance, EV adoption are accelerating.
High upfront costs → small carriers struggle, consolidation intensifies.
🌱 August 2025: Seasonal Hope Ahead
🎉 Labor Day Crunch
Aug 29–Sept 1: Driver downtime → tight capacity + higher rates.
⚖️ Cautious Optimism
August’s rebound = seasonal, not structural.
Long-term recovery still tied to macro-economic factors.
🔑 Strategic Imperatives
For Shippers
âś… Lock in low contract rates now.
âś… Strengthen carrier relationships for reliability.
For Carriers
âś… Cut costs smartly with selective tech adoption.
âś… Diversify lanes & services (reefer, dedicated, intermodal).
For Industry Stakeholders
âś… Track policy & tariff developments closely.
âś… Start positioning for 2026 recovery.
✉️ Stay tuned for our next update as we track the freight market heading into peak season.